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Speculations on a second Bush term:

Musings about a second Bush term typically assume another four years of the same right-wing policies we’ve had to date. But it’d likely be far worse. So far, the Bush administration has had to govern with the expectation of facing American voters again in 2004. But suppose George W. Bush wins a second term. The constraint of a re-election contest will be gone. Knowing that voters can no longer turn them out, and that this will be their last shot at remaking America, the radical conservatives will be unleashed.

A friend who specializes in foreign policy and hobnobs with subcabinet officials in the Defense and State departments told me that the only thing that’s stopped the Bushies from storming into Iran and North Korea is the upcoming election. If Bush is re-elected, “[Dick] Cheney and [Donald] Rumsfeld are out of the box,” he said. “They’ll take Bush’s re-election as a mandate to wage the ‘war on terror’ everywhere and anywhere.” […]

Domestic policy will swing further right. A re-election would strengthen the White House’s hand on issues that even many congressional Republicans have a hard time accepting, such as the assault on civil liberties. Bush will seek to push “Patriot II” through Congress, giving the Justice Department and the FBI powers to inspect mail, eavesdrop on phone conversations and e-mail, and examine personal medical records, insurance claims, and bank accounts.

Right-wing evangelicals will solidify their control over the departments of Justice, Education, and Health and Human Services — curtailing abortions, putting federal funds into the hands of private religious groups, pushing prayer in the public schools, and promoting creationism.

Economic policy, meanwhile, will be tilted even more brazenly toward the rich. Republican strategist Grover Norquist smugly predicts larger tax benefits for high earners in a second Bush administration. The goal will be to eliminate all taxes on capital gains, dividends, and other forms of unearned income and move toward a “flat tax.” The plan will be for deficits to continue to balloon until Wall Street demands large spending cuts as a condition for holding down long-term interest rates. Homeowners, facing potential losses on their major nest eggs as mortgage rates move upward, might be persuaded to join the chorus.