One state, Two State, Red State, Blue State
I’m about ready to make Electoral Vote Predictor 2004 my home page.
You, too, can compulsively refresh it to see the latest poll results by state translated into an overall prediction.
At the moment, Kerry leads 307 to 231. But 104 votes are from states whose majorities only ‘barely’ favors one candidate, while the majorities of 115 more ‘weakly’ favor one candidate. 270 votes takes it.
So it could go any which way.
Assuming, y’know, no one cheats.
Results as of today are somewhat encouraging: Kerry's EV counts are up and Bush's are down. But more "strong" states are moving towards "weak" and more "weak" to "barely", on both sides. Truly, we live in interesting times.
Some interesting articles on the election, this one from Slate, comparing Kerry to Costco and Bush to Wal-Mart. Costco is getting some great publicity out of this election. I'd never even heard of the chain before this summer, and there's a store within ten miles of my home. I'll try to direct my future shopping there.
And The Onion has had its share of both hits and misses lately, but I think this one is right on the money: Kerry Unveils One-Point Plan for Better America.
Posted by Jimcat on August 13 2004 09:47
Woo hoo! Florida and Ohio are showing as weakly for Kerry! They pack more electoral punch than any of the other swing states, so they're important ones.
But, ultimately, I suspect Jeb'll come up with something to deliver Florida. (And how I wish that was just paranoid raving.)
Posted by Zed on August 13 2004 12:18
In the months leading up to the election of 2000, I saw posts on some forums from conservatives who were afraid that Clinton and Gore would never relinquish power; that they would declare a state of emergency or martial law to suspend the elections or nullify their results.
The way the election actually ended up was an open door to the conspiracy theorists' worst nightmares, and it didn't happen. Not that I think the Supreme Court made the right decision, but everyone played by the rules and respected the result.
That's worth remembering as we head towards the 2004 election. Neither side trusts the other, and yes, some limited cheating will probably occur, as it always has. But no one is going to kick over the board. If the election process is completely subverted or circumvented, then what the "winners" will end up in charge of won't truly be the United States of America. And nobody really wants to risk that.
Posted by Jimcat on August 16 2004 07:59
I don't share your confidence that BushCo wouldn't be interested in being in charge of something that was no longer truly the U.S.
Nor even that they haven't already kicked over the board.
Posted by Zed on August 18 2004 18:46